With many AICHEF organizations meeting annually, and with the number of significant development issues arising, the future of the U.N. climate talks is not certain. AICHEF does not even have a mandate to decide what would be considered the next major issue, nor does it have a mandate to run the conference.
The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) will be a powerful player in ensuring that global warming remains a key issue for the next two years. NAM will also take on the role of setting the agenda and direction for the major "last step" meetings where the big powers and major developing countries meet. NAM representatives will be much more influential and much more influential than those from AICHEF, as NAM members are not major players.
While many observers were surprised when the ICLEI, which is the world's largest non-governmental organization, suspended its participation in the climate talks, many AICHEF organizers did not anticipate such a dramatic turn of events. Most people, and indeed many developing countries, had assumed that ICLEI delegates would play a major role in getting each country's governments to address the issues. The "suspension" by ICLEI made it clear that this wasn't going to happen.
The non-binding mandate of AICHEF is quite limited. AICHEF has not been asked to develop a report that sets the agenda for the next two years of meetings. Rather, they are not even allowed to send their own delegates to the conferences. But, it is widely believed that the organization does have enough support among developing countries, so that it can still play a major role.
Whether or not AICHEF can maintain its status as the forum of choice for developing countries, is doubtful. The major powers of the world have little to gain by being in the same room with them.
There are some AICHEF members that are under pressure from the other major powers in the world to remain focused on pressing issues that affect their economies. This means that developing countries may need to do more to press their case at the next climate change talks, which could end up needing a larger number of AICHEF members.
In terms of the major players in the world today, the major powers in the world are the most difficult to influence. They are each conducting their own negotiations and will resist changing what is working for them. Many observers believe that the main sticking point at these meetings will be the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.
The developed countries and the emerging economies in the world are all concerned about their aging populations and the growing population of people living in poverty. What is needed, above all else, is a comprehensive package that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
Developing countries cannot have a key role in addressing this problem, because the resources required to do so are not there. China and India need less coal, but India and China need coal for their increasing energy needs. They need coal, but coal isn't easy to get.
The strongest and most powerful argument that developing countries should look to developing countries for support is that in terms of cumulative emissions, developing countries are responsible for a very small fraction of the problem. Developing countries emit smaller amounts of carbon dioxide per person per year, and this amount is growing at a rate that far outpaces developing countries. Therefore, the gap between developed and developing countries on greenhouse gas emissions is rapidly closing.
The key question for AICHEF is to define exactly what the organization does. One implication of this is that a large majority of the organization's current budget goes toward executive salaries, despite the fact that the major portion of AICHEF's annual budget goes to scientific research. and development activities.
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